Kyles Science Fair Project

SOLAR FLARE EFFECTS IN RADIO COMMUNICATIONS

My son Kyle, had a great idea for a science fair project which had to due with sun spots, solar flare activity and ham radio communications. This was a great project which got him a little further into ham radio and also to help him learn about how solar activity can affect all kings of radio communications. I am very proud of Kyle for doing this and I believe that he has learned quite a bit about this topic.

Now study for your license Kyle!!!!!!

Below are the slides that Kyle put together to make this project come together and this will be presented to his school this week. Yea Kyle!!!!!!

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Here we see the entire board with the slides that are required for his presentation

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On the left side of the board, we see the Introduction, the Background Research, Question which needs to be answered and Hypothesis to prove or disprove

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In the middle of the presentation we find the Averages of Solar Flare Probability, M Class Flare Probability and X Class Flare Probability. We also have the average table which bring the information together in the averages chart for the time taken to gather the data. There is also the Source Of Error and Bibliography slides.

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On the right side of the board, we can see the Materials list for this projects, the Procedure that Kyle used during his experiments, any Further Research, and the Conclusion.

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The procedures that he used in this mainly consisted of looking up the days sun spot numbers, X and M Class probability numbers, and choosing the frequencies in the 20 Meter, 17 Meter and 10 Meter bands to listen to. He documented the finding during these procedures and there were some impressive results. The reason for checking these bands is that they are more daytime bands and see to give decent results.

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Here we see the 20 Meter Band Results for the time frame that Kyle ran through the procedures.

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Here we see the 17 Meter Band Results for the time frame that Kyle ran through the procedures.

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Here we see the 10 Meter Band Results for the time frame that Kyle ran through the procedures.

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Here is part of Kyles data sheet that he put together. This shows the Date, Band, Frequency, Solar Flare Probability, M Class Flare Probability, X Class Flare Probability, Sun Spot Number, Time and Expected Results for the band. The results for Nov 29th (Day 2), Dec 02nd (Day 5) and Dec 4th (Day 7) showed the best probabilities of either having a solar flare or not.

Just use the scroll bar below to move right.

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Below shows the solar forecasts for the days that Kyle did his experiments. There is some good information in this to help show what the excepted conditions should be.

Friday 28 November last updated 27/2344 UTC
Low to moderate solar flare activity is expected for 28-Nov.
The solar wind is light.
Geomagnetic conditions are at quiet levels, but could become unsettled during 28-Nov.
Short-wave radio fadeouts are possible, depending on solar activity.
High-frequency radio communications are otherwise normal.

Saturday 29 November last updated 28/2321 UTc
Low to moderate solar flare activity is expected for 29-Nov.
The solar wind is light.
Geomagnetic conditions are at quiet levels, but could become unsettled during 29-Nov.
Short-wave radio fadeouts are possible, depending on solar activity.
High-frequency radio communications are otherwise normal, with enhanced maximum useable frequencies expected on 29-Nov.

Sunday 30 November last updated 29/2332 UTC
Low to moderate solar flare activity is expected for 30-Nov.
The solar wind is light to moderate.
Geomagnetic conditions are at quiet levels, but could become unsettled during 30-Nov.
Short-wave radio fadeouts are possible, depending on solar activity.
High-frequency radio communications are otherwise normal, with enhanced maximum useable frequencies expected on 30-Nov.

Monday 01 December last updated 30/2326 UTC
Low solar flare activity is expected on 1-Dec.
The solar wind is light to moderate.
Geomagnetic conditions are quiet but expected to become unsettled
with a predicted rise in the solar wind speed on 1-Dec.
High-frequency radio communications are normal, with slightly enhanced maximum useable frequencies.

Tuesday 02 December last updated 01/2356 UTC
Low solar flare activity, with a chance of moderate activity.
Minor coronal hole effects in progress and expected to persist for two to three days.
Moderate solar wind.
Geomagnetic conditions at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated unsettled to active periods, mainly at high latitudes.
Short-wave radio fadeouts possible.
High-frequency radio communications normal at all latitudes with isolated degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes.

Wednesday 03 December last updated 02/2356 UTC
Low solar flare activity, with a chance of moderate activity.
Minor coronal hole effects in progress and expected to persist for two to three days.
Moderate solar wind.
Geomagnetic conditions at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated unsettled to active periods, mainly at high latitudes.
Short-wave radio fadeouts possible.
High-frequency radio communications normal at all latitudes with isolated degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes.

Thursday 04 December last updated 03/2344 UTC
Low solar flare activity, with a chance of low to moderate activity.
Minor coronal hole effects in progress. Moderate solar wind.
Geomagnetic conditions at quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods.
Active intervals possible at high latitudes.
Short-wave radio fadeouts possible.
High-frequency radio communications variable at low pwlatitudes, mostly normal at mid latitudes,
with isolated degraded conditions at high latitudes.

Saturday 06 December last updated 05/2345 UTC
Low solar flare activity, with a chance of moderate activity.
Minor coronal hole effects in progress.
Moderate solar wind.
Geomagnetic conditions at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active to minor storm periods at high latitudes.
Short-wave radio fadeouts possible.
High-frequency radio communications mostly normal at low to mid latitudes with isolated degraded conditions at high latitudes.

Sunday 07 December last updated 06/2353 UT
Low solar flare activity, with a chance of moderate activity.
Minor coronal mass ejection effects possible.
Minor coronal hole effects in progress.
Moderate to strong solar wind.
Geomagnetic conditions at unsettled levels with some active periods.
Short-wave radio fadeouts possible.
High-frequency radio communications normal at low latitudes
with isolated degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes.
Aurora sightings may possible from extreme southern Australian
regions if anticipated mild shocks combine with the present elevated solar wind stream.

Wednesday 10 December last updated 09/2304 UTC
Low to moderate solar flare activity is expected for 10-Dec.
Coronal hole effects are still in decline, with the solar wind now moderate.
Geomagnetic conditions are at quiet to unsettled levels.
There is a small chance of short-wave radio fadeouts.
High-frequency radio communications are normal,
with isolated degraded conditions at high latitudes.

Thursday 11 December last updated 10/2326 UT
Low to moderate solar flare activity is expected for 11-Dec.
The solar wind is now light to moderate.
Geomagnetic conditions settled during 10-Dec to quiet levels.
There is a small chance of short-wave radio fadeouts.
High-frequency radio communications are normal.

Thursday 11 December last updated 10/2326 UT
Low to moderate solar flare activity is expected for 11-Dec.
The solar wind is now light to moderate.
Geomagnetic conditions settled during 10-Dec to quiet levels.
There is a small chance of short-wave radio fadeouts.
High-frequency radio communications are normal.

Friday 12 December last updated 11/2330 UT
Low solar flare activity. Moderate solar wind.
Geomagnetic conditions at Quiet to Unsettled with
isolated periods of Active levels at higher latitudes.
High-frequency radio communications normal.

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Here is one the items that Kyle used to show how the bands would be during the time that he was experimenting on the air. This includes the sun spot number and the expected band conditions.

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Below is another item that Kyle used for the sun spot and solar flare probability information. This is located live at http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/fm/

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